![]() The SARIMAX model is a multivariate time series forecasting model that can accommodate the seasonal components. This research focused on comparing the forecasting model of rice production data by SARIMAX and GSTARIMAX model and used rainfall as explanatory variables. ![]() Moreover, rainfall as climate factors should be included to produce an appropriate forecast model that can be expected to generate the estimation of the rice production data accurately. Therefore, Indonesia's government should provide a forecast related to rice production accurately to ensure the availability of food stocks as an integral part of national food security. However, rice production in Indonesia especially South Sulawesi often declined sharply due to climate disturbances, such as drought or flood. There are three regions, Bone, Wajo, and Gowa that contribute to the high production of rice in South Sulawesi. Department of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesiaįorecasting, gstarimax, rainfall, rice production, sarimax Abstractīased on Statistics Indonesia (BPS) South Sulawesi is one of the national rice granary province.
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